Document No. 65

Fluid Separation Processes Subject Group

Scenario planning exercise

FSPG considered Technical Board’s request for scenarios at two committee meetings in 1998, and generated the four scenarios sketched below. In accordance with the general requirement, these are meant to be challenging, and relevant, and have a time horizon of around 25 years. We did not take them as far as the detailed consequences for separation technology, though this could easily be done, but worked on the broader picture. They are not of course predictions, merely possible views.

"World of the microplant"

Drivers: Trend away from vast chemical plants towards production in local community. Use of locally produced raw materials; quicker response to local customer demand; capital expenditure reduction; societal intolerance of large-scale production or domination by foreign exporter or transport of dangerous product; extension of "polluter pays" principle to "polluter processes" principle.

Story: For some (but not all!) products, above drivers push towards production at small scale in local community. Could apply to foods, medicines, chemicals used in the home, farm, community. Waste products processed at source: eg cutting fluid in the machine shop, domestic waste in the home. Energy capture by local solar power plant. It is the reverse of the classic trend towards large scale centralised processing. The requirement for the microplant would be one of absolute safety, reliability, ease of use, flexibility. This would require careful licensing and standardisation (and design!). Capital expenditure is drastically reduced, and incurred nearer to the customer, or actually by him. Chemicals processing is dedemonised.

Results: Old megaprocessing facilities decline. New opportunities in microplant design and licensing. Employment opportunities trend towards localised small scale, servicing of the distributed processing system.

"Perfection process"

Drivers: Society, intolerant of risk/pollution/waste sets "perfection" targets for manufacturing processes. Chemical waste regarded with same hostility as nuclear waste. Economic consequences of waste (perhaps initially in some critical areas) means plant has to produce "on-spec" all the time. Reduction of manning, means processes must run without (expensive) technological support.

Story: The circuit diagram of a television looks superficially like the flowsheet of a process plant, yet its individual components are infinitely more reliable, with a performance that varies very little with time. The "perfection process" only uses operations that have similar reliability to electronic components. Fouling and corrosion and causes of mechanical failure are eliminated. Many two-phase flow processes are banned, or would have to be completely re-engineered to make them predictable. The plant would need very little control, since it always runs at its optimum performance, and requires diagnostic servicing (like a modern car) – "the 100 000 tonne service".

Results: We would need much more detailed knowledge of materials properties (thermodynamic, transport, catalytic, other chemical, solids) than we have at present – this must be generated – a lot of new technology. But only those with an appropriate bench-marked design would be allowed to operate, so design for reliability replaces design for economic performance. This leads to modular designs, where a plant has to be constructed of modules, each certified for reliability.

"The vanishing chemical engineer"

Idea: The need for chemical engineers in manufacturing industry declines severely

Drivers: Globalisation of manufacturing, and demanning, leads to most chemical engineering expertise in manufacturing being supplied by small groups of consultants/contractors.

Story: Concentration of expertise is also driven by telecommunications whereby experts can easily be consulted from anywhere in the world, fed with documents, shown control room data on-line etc. This also means that academic chemical engineers will no longer work in manufacturing oriented areas. The number of chemical engineers required in manufacturing decreases drastically – the need is more for engineers with a broader training, also able to deal with business processes.

Results: There is a problem with the capture and transmission of specialist knowledge, which is now concentrated in just a few heads. Training of the specialists will be by combined University/industry training, requiring new (far fewer) courses, and new certification. Many taught chemical engineering courses (world-wide) would disappear, being subsumed into general engineering, or being refocussed on new applications outside manufacturing (delivering healthcare, government employment in health/safety/environment, energy generation and supply, farming, distribution and supply services) . Major implication for recruitment and education of chemical engineers which is focussed on new areas, away from manufacturing.

"Sustainable world"

Drivers: Political and society pressure towards a sustainable world order. Ideas of intergenerational equity are accepted. Supplies of oil and gas diminish. The nuclear waste disposal problem is not solved, neither is the problem of nuclear torrorism.

Story: The trend towards renewables gets a push from governments (recognising political pressure). In the long term (late 21st century) the decline in oil and gas production will have to be catered for in any case. Oil, gas nuclear still in use, but renewables have far larger (mandated?) share of energy supply.

Results: A great deal of new technology is needed, both for industrial and domestic power, and transportation fuels. The feedstock for many chemical processes changes away from petrochemicals, not back to coal tar, but perhaps to biomass. New chemistry would be needed for new molecules and polymers, also replacing many minerals and metals. Energy intensive processes would have to be replaced. We would need to design for total recyling of all by-products, and indeed recyclability of all products. New, lightweight materials save transportation energy. The trend accelerates towards bioprocesses, based on enzymes working more selectively and at more benign conditions, in aqueous environments. Use of "extremozymes".

FSPG, December 1998